SurveyUSA poll finds Guthrie up by 6 in 2nd District race

The latest public poll in Kentucky’s 2nd District has Republican Brett Guthrie up by 6 points over his Democratic opponent David Boswell.

The poll conducted by SurveyUSA for WHAS-TV in Louisville and released today shows those surveyed favor Guthrie, a state senator from Bowling Green, to Boswell, a Sorgho state senator, by a margin of 49 to 43 percent, a reversal of the lead in the polling firm’s last survey in June that showed Boswell with ahead 47 to 43. 

The Guthrie camp downplayed the impact and importance of polls in response to these most recent results. 

“Polls go up and they go down,” Guthrie campaign manager Brian Smith said in a statement. “While polls will bounce around, Brett Guthrie’s integrity, work ethic and conservative values will remain consistent through Election Day and that’s why he’ll win this race.”

SurveyUSA sampled 592 likely voters on Wednesday and Thursday for the poll – that followed a controversial television ad produced by the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee that began airing in Louisville on Tuesday.

The ad made claims that Guthrie’s company Trace Die Cast Inc. sent manufacturing work to Mexico and was disputed by Guthrie, Trace Die Cast Inc. and the National Republican Congressional Committee. At least one of the four stations that was airing the ad pulled it from the air.

Boswell attributed Guthrie’s bump to the head start Guthrie had in running television commercials, but said he didn’t see any impact from the DCCC ad that began running this week. 

Guthrie aired his first ad on Sept. 12, while Boswell’s first ad didn’t hit the air until this Tuesday – the same day the DCCC ad began airing. 

“Obviously they had about a 10-day jump on us with media and online with their commercials,” Boswell said. “I would anticipate there would be some degree of fluctuation with that. … It’s not the end of the world.”

Compared to SurveyUSA’s previous poll, Guthrie made gains among male voters, who had previously been split between the two candidates but now favor Guthrie by 12 percentage points. 

Boswell has described himself as a conservative Democrat, and on Thursday received the endorsement of the Blue Dog Coalition, a group of moderate to conservative Democrats in Congress. 

But those surveyed this week who identified themselves as conservative largely preferred Guthrie by a margin of 75 to 17 percent, compared to 70 to 23 percent in the June poll. Boswell leads among those that describe themselves as moderate and liberal, two groups that accounted for 43 percent of those surveyed. 

Kentucky’s 2nd District is a Democratic district according to voter registration, but has sent a Republican to Congress since 1994. Evidence of those crossover voters was seen in today’s survey results that showed 21 percent of Democrats surveyed saying they would vote for Guthrie. Among Republicans surveyed, 8 percent said they would vote for Boswell, according to the poll.

A third poll from earlier this month by the Garin-Hart-Yang firm conducted for the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee had Boswell with a 9-point lead over Guthrie, who takes the lead for the first time with this poll.

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One Response

  1. […] Guthrie with a lead in the district. A poll released Oct. 17 showed Guthrie leading 51 to 42 and a Sept. 26 survey had Guthrie with a 49-43 lead over […]

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